Covid-19's effect on global trade in the post-pandemic period: Forecast analysis of global gdp and trade a decade after 2025

Abstract

By the end of May 2022 according to the data, the number of cases increased to 530 million, the number of virus-related deaths increased to 6.3 million, and the CFR decreased to 1.18 with the increase in vaccination. The full vaccination rate increased to 60% at the end of May. It should not be overlooked that vaccination is 18% in Africa and 11.8% in low-income countries. The global output GDP will be 99.4 trillion dollars in 2022 and 147 trillion dollars in 2035. It is also clearly seen that China will surpass the USA in national income at current prices in 2028. It is estimated that global imports will reach 23.5 trillion dollars in 2022 and 36.6 trillion dollars in 2035. It is expected that the chemicals and chemical products industry will be at the top with imports of 6.1 trillion dollars in 2022 and 9.5 trillion dollars in 2035 and is accounted for 25.3% of global imports in 2021. It is estimated that this rate will increase to 28.8% in 2035. Hong Kong is at the top with the Trade Openness Index value of 4.06 in 2022 and 4.5 in 2035.