Temperature difference relationship among precipitation, dry days, and spells in Turkey

Abstract

Strong logical relationships exist between temperature difference and hydro-meteorological variables such as precipitation, dry days, and dry spells. These relationships can be used for knowing how the differences of total and top 10% heavy precipitations, dry days, and dry spells will change with respect to temperature differences? Here, daily precipitation and temperature records over Turkey are considered from 1971 to 2010, inclusive. First 30-year (1971-2000) data are used for training for temperature difference function (Delta T) and the remaining 10-year (2001-2010) is reserved for validation. The temperature difference function is validated by mean relative error, and the results are calculated for total and top 10% heavy precipitation, dry days, and spells as 14.60%, 6.14%, 2.81%, and 11.89%, respectively. The strong relationship exists between temperature difference function and standard deviation of corresponding climatic variables. Results show that standard deviation and mean relative error (MRE) have linear correlation. Also, Delta T model predictions are compared with CMIP5 RCPs projections from 2020 to 2100. The suggested model predictions fall within the range of various atmosphere-ocean global circulation (climate) model (AOGCM) scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projections, in addition to model predictions cross-correlation for RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0.