Drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in Turkey

Abstract

Drought has multiple impacts on socioeconomic sectors, and it is expected to increase in the coming years due to non-stationary nature of climate change and variability. Drought hazard and vulnerability are investigated based on hydro-meteorological and actual socioeconomic data for provinces of Turkey. Drought vulnerability and risk assessment are essential parts of drought phenomenon; however, lack of proper integrated drought risk assessment in Turkey (and elsewhere) might lead to higher socioeconomic impacts. Drought Hazard Index (DHI) is derived based on the probability of drought occurrences using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Besides, Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is calculated by utilizing four socioeconomic indicators to quantify drought impact on society. Finally, Drought Risk Index (DRI) is obtained by multiplying DHI and DVI for provinces of Turkey to highlight the relative importance of hazard and vulnerability assessment for drought risk management. A set of drought hazard, vulnerability, and composite risk map is prepared for further interpretations. The analyses reveal that among 81 administrative provinces, 73 are exposed to low drought risk (0<DRI<0.25), 6 provinces to moderate drought risk (0.25<DRI<0.50), and 1 province (Konya) to high drought risk (0.50<DRI<0.75). These maps can assist stakeholders to identify the regional drought vulnerability to help mitigation strategy developments and for effective water resource management.