The impact of climate change on construction activity performance

Abstract

There are specific construction operations that require weather forecast data to make short-term decisions regarding construction; however, most resource-related decision making and all project management plans must be carried out to anticipate weather conditions beyond the capabilities of the currently available forecasting technologies. In this study, a series of single- and multi-risk analyses were performed with 9 km grid resolution over Turkiye using combinations of weather and climate variables and their threshold values which have an impact on the execution and performance of construction activities. These analyses will improve the predictability of potential delays, enable the project to be scheduled on a future-proof basis by considering the calculated normal and periodic predictions on the grid scale, and serve as a dispute resolution tool for related claims. A comprehensive case study showcasing the methodology and illustrating its application shows that the project duration is expected to be extended because of the impact of climate on both historical and future periods. While the original project duration was 207 days, when climate effects were considered, the optimum mean and median values increased to 255 and 238 days, respectively, for the historical period. The optimum duration mean and median change to 239 days by the end of the century, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, if the construction schedules consider climate change. The change in duration was mainly due to rising temperatures, which increased winter workability and reduced summer workability. However, if the historical practices are carried over to future schedules, the mean and median increase to 258 days and 244 days, respectively, which may cause unavoidable direct, indirect, or overhead costs.