A study on the energy problem in the eastern mediterranean: Text mining and AHP-based strategy recommendations

Abstract

The American Geological Association has made some estimates for reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean region. According to these estimates, it is predicted that there are very high amounts of natural gas and oil resources in the deltas of Nile, Levant and Aphrodite. These figures are large enough to meet Europe’s 10-year natural gas need. On the other hand, another important point in this process is that these reserves are the amount determined in the studies conducted so far. In other words, there is a possibility that the actual reserve amount in this region is well above the estimated. Investigations in the relevant region are ongoing. As a result of these investigations, there is a possibility that new reserves will be identified. Because of this situation, there are many countries engaged in energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. Firstly, the countries, which have a border to this region like Turkey, Israel, Egypt, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Cyprus, Greece, Lebanon, Syria and Libya, are very active in this region. In addition, although there is no border to the region, countries such as the USA, Russia, England, France and Italy want to maintain their weight in the energy equation in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is obvious that the size of the energy reserves in the region lies at the heart of the energy struggle in the Eastern Mediterranean. This situation causes an increase in political tensions between some countries operating in the region. No country wants to give up this economic size. Therefore, some countries like Turkey-Greece and Libya-Egypt have problems with each other. The aim of this study is to develop strategies to reduce the political tension between countries due to energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean region. In this context, an analysis has been carried out by considering data mining and AHP methods in a hybrid way. The analysis process in question consists of 2 different stages. In the first process of the analysis, the most common words in academic studies are categorized using the LDA model. In this framework, 4 different categories are created. In the second phase of the analysis, more important factors are determined with the help of AHP method. The findings indicate that political relationship is the most significant factor to solve the conflict in Eastern Mediterranean region. Furthermore, transportation also plays a key role in this framework. Nevertheless, energy production and reserve amount have lower important roles to minimize this problem. Considering these results, ways of establishing positive relations between all countries in the region should be sought. Searching for a reconciliation with the energy companies making exploration, as well as with the countries, may contribute to solving the problems in the region.