Gender and age trends in hiv incidence in Turkey between 1990 and 2021: joinpoint and age–period–cohort analyses

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Despite a global decrease in HIV incidence, recent trends in Türkiye indicate a concerning rise, particularly among younger populations and women. This study investigates the local and regional dynamics influencing these trends using advanced epidemiological methodologies. Material and Methods: Utilizing Age–period–cohort analysis and joinpoint regression, we analysed HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease study for Türkiye. These methods allowed for a detailed examination of changes over time, identifying specific age groups and periods with significant shifts in incidence rates. Results: Key findings include a 13.03% increase in annual percentage change among males aged 15–19 and an 11.37% increase among females in the same age group. Additionally, the incidence rates among females have shown a significant rise after 2008. Conclusions: The rising HIV incidence in Türkiye reflects complex socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors, with significant increases among young people and women. Addressing these challenges requires targeted interventions, comprehensive educational programs, and inclusive healthcare services to align with global efforts and commitments. The study underscores the importance of incorporating young people in decision-making processes to effectively combat HIV in Türkiye.