Predicting the role of islamic banking on sustainable economic development: An analysis for Turkey with ARIMA Model

Abstract

This chapter aims to predict the future of Islamic banking in Turkey. Three different Islamic banks operating in Turkey were taken to the scope of review. Within this framework, six different variables that are important for the banking sector have been identified. The data of these variables in the 2010-2018 period were analyzed by ARIMA method, and six different models were established. As a result, it is predicted that Islamic banking will grow in the future, and its profitability will increase. However, the ratio of non-performing loans is expected to increase, and capital is expected to decrease. Therefore, Islamic banks should be more cautious in this growth process. In this context, it is important to conduct an effective credibility analysis of customers to be loaned. This situation has a contributing effect on the sustainable economic development of the country.