Climate change expectations in the upper Tigris River basin, Turkey

Abstract

This paper studies the Upper Tigris River (UTR) drainage basin in Turkey for climate change impacted runoff estimations. Statistical downscaling method (SDM) is used by taking into consideration spatial dependence function (SDF) for the scenario precipitation projections at a set of available meteorology stations. Temporal adjustment between the climate scenarios and precipitation record time series is achieved by the white Markov (WM) stochastic process. Although various climate research center scenario data are considered, herein, only the general circulation model (GCM) A2 scenario data are adapted from the Hadley Center, England. The precipitation and runoff results are presented in decadal groups starting from 2001 to 2050 as cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP) and cumulative monthly runoff (CMR) graphs. It is observed that after 2021, precipitation decreases at about 12.5% and after 2030, it is 26%. Runoff projections indicate that they may decrease at about 30% especial after 2040.